Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, New York

Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, New York

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Move Over, Black Swan:
Here Comes the Gray Rhino

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While the sheer size of the 2008 financial crisis may have been an unforeseeable “black swan,” the market speculation and imbalances behind it were not. Each of the underlying causes—the housing bubble, problems with credit default swaps, and poor risk management—was a highly obvious threat: that is, a “gray rhino.”

Why do policy and business leaders consistently fail to deal with imminent crises in time to prevent widespread damage? And how can we strategically confront and manage highly probable but neglected gray rhinos?

Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, discusses the top risks of 2016 and strategies to deal with them in the context of the gray rhino framework, providing a critical re-orientation of policy and business strategy.

Wucker is also the author of Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting it Right. She is the former president of the World Policy Institute and has been a source for major U.S. and international media including The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Reuters, CNN, CNBC, Fox News, MSNBC, and National Public Radio.

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