COVID-19 Related Podcasts

Catch up with Michele by listening to the recent podcast interviews she’s done focused on the COVID-19 pandemic and its financial consequences. Here are links and short descriptions:

Moneywise Guys
David Anderson and Sherod White, KERN Talk Radio/Moneywise Guys, June 30, 2020
David and Sherod talk with THE GRAY RHINO author Michele Wucker about why you should be wary of the surge in the markets, and how you can keep from getting trampled when the bull market turns to a bear.

Would You Know If a Gray Rhino Was Coming at You?
Jim Blasingame, The Small Business Advocate, June 16, 2020
Michele Wucker joins Jim Blasingame to reveal the concept of a metaphorical gray rhino, which is a challenge on your horizon that you should be – have been – able to anticipate and deal with before it takes – took – you down.

A Conversation with Michele Wucker
Anne Janzer’s blog, June 12, 2020
Podcast and transcript
“Q: For people who aren’t familiar with it, we’ll talk about your book The Gray Rhino. The reason that it’s coming up today is because this pandemic is a wonderful example of a Gray Rhino: a risk that it’s obvious we’ve seen stampeding towards us—or some people have been seeing and shouting about—and yet we’ve done nothing until we’re on the horn of the rhino.”

Michele Wucker Breaks Down the Gray Rhino
Scott Kitun, WGN Radio/Technori
June 10, 2020
“When people think back to the 2008 financial crisis and other big events, they often jump to the moment’s inevitability that catastrophically impacts economies, businesses and lives in what has become known as black swan events. However, Wucker dissects just how much we overlook in terms of predicting global-scale events and phenomenon, with the answers often hidden in plain sight.”

Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, and Tigers..Oh My with Michele Wucker
RCM Alternatives, Derivatives Podcast, May 28, 2020
[Video Podcast]
“The financial world seems to have a fascination with zoomorphism – the attribution of animal names, emotions, or intentions to non- animal occurrences like market shocks. Black Swans are the famous one, but there’s also been White Moose and Gray Rhino added to the lexicon. This episode we sit down with the creator of the Gray Rhino risk metaphor, Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino.”

The big questions we face in coming months
Amy Guth, Crain’s Daily Gist, May 25, 2020
“Author Michele Wucker coined the term “grey rhino” for a highly probable, high-impact yet neglected threat. In this episode of the podcast, she talks with host Amy Guth about how grey rhinos could shape economic recovery, the practical decisions we’re going to need to make over the coming weeks and months and what helps us to bounce back quickly.”

Covid-19 and the perils of prediction
Tom Standage, The Economist The World Ahead (podcast), March 31, 2020
“As the Covid-19 situation worsens, host Tom Standage explores what the pandemic reveals about the perils of prediction and what other future threats we might be overlooking. ”

Michele Wucker and Gray Rhinos
Richard Cutcher and Julia Graham, Airmic Talks, May 10, 2020

Interview with Michele Wucker
David R. Koenig, DCRO Risk Governance, May 8, 2020

The Truth About Facing A Challenge
Gary Sanchez, Beyond Your Why, May 1, 2020

Global Thinkers Forum in Conversation with Changemakers
Elisabeth Filippouli, Global Thinkers Forum and Athena40, 17 April 2020

War, What Is It Good For?
National Public Radio on the Media, April 3, 2020

Breaking the Fever Inaugural Episode
Preventable Surprises and Ethical Systems, Breaking the Fever, March 31, 2020

The Economist’s The World Ahead podcast

The Economist magazine’s Tom Standage interviewed Michele Wucker on The World Ahead podcast posted Monday, March 30, 2020. In the episode, focused on Covid-19 and the perils of prediction, they talked about her gray rhino theory and how it applies to the pandemic and economic crises. You can listen HERE.

President Xi Jinping Warns of Gray Rhino Risks

China must be on guard against highly improbable, unimaginable “black swan” events while also fending off highly probable but often neglected “gray rhino” risks, Chinese President Xi Jinping told senior Communist Party officials at the opening ceremony of a study session at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee January 21st.

Xi spoke shortly after newly released economic data showed that in 2018 China’s economy had slowed to the lowest rate in 28 years.

“In the face of a turbulent international situation, a complex and sensitive environment, and the arduous task of reform … We must be highly vigilant against ‘black swan’ and ‘grey rhinoceros’ incidents,” he said. Xinhua News Agency issued a full statement on his talk.

Xi cited areas in which China faces major risks: politics, ideology, economy, science and technology, society, the external environment, and party building.

His comments generated worldwide news coverage, from Australia to Indonesia to Argentina, and helped send U.S. stocks down over concerns about the effect of a slowing Chinese economy on global growth.

Columnist Ana Fuentes of Spain’s El Pais newspaper wrote, “More than black swans, it appears that 2019 will be the year of gray rhinos, threats that we have identified but have not been able to or known how to stop.” Top on her list was the crisis of governability in the West.

THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, was released in China by CITIC Press in February 2017 and has become an influential best-seller.

BuzzFeed News on the Dominican Republic, the US, and Citizenship

BuzzFeed reporter Emily Tamkin interviewed Michele Wucker and quoted her in Trump Wants To Cancel Birthright Citizenship. The US Has Already Helped One Country Do That, a November 12, 2018 article about the Dominican Republic’s stripping of citizenship to Dominicans of Haitian descent.

Donald Trump’s plan to end birthright citizenship by executive order was immediately denounced by legal scholars as an illegal intrusion on the Constitution’s 14th Amendment. But the United States knows something about ending birthright citizenship because it played an active role in helping another country bring it to a close — the Dominican Republic.

That role, which was unfolding before Trump became president, has long been the subject of criticism — from the Organization of American States, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and former Peace Corps volunteers who served in Haiti, which shares the island of Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic. Trump’s criticism of birthright citizenship and call for a wall on the US–Mexico border have renewed concerns that the US is inflaming the Dominican Republic’s already hostile xenophobic attitudes toward its Haitian minority.

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“US human rights organizations were very vocal against the court ruling in 2013, and were very vocal in documenting some of the problems, particularly as it came into force in 2015,” Michele Wucker, author of Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola, said.

Read the whole article on Buzzfeed.

The Gray Rhino on FT Alphachat

I enjoyed talking with the FT’s Matt Klein about why we don’t deal with problems we see in advance – and how to fix it- on the January 18, 2018 edition of FT Alphachat, the conversational podcast about business and economics produced by the Financial Times in New York. Each week, FT hosts and guests delve into a new theme, with more wonkiness, humour and irreverence than you’ll find anywhere else.

LISTEN HERE.

The Gray Rhino Goes Global

The gray rhino has continued its charge around the globe, with a front page, above the fold article in The New York Times July 23, 2017: “Let the West worry about so-called black swans, rare and unexpected events that can upset financial markets. China is more concerned about “gray rhinos” — large and visible problems in the economy that are ignored until they start moving fast.”

Here’s a roundup of some recent media coverage of China’s effort to crack down on its financial gray rhinos, including liquidity and credit risks, shadow banking, abnormal capital market fluctuations and real estate bubbles:

China ignores the ‘grey rhino’ threats to its economy at its own peril Andrew Sheng, South China Morning Post, July 21, 2017

From black swans to gray rhinos, Andrew Sheng, The Star (Malaysia), July 22, 2017

In China, Herd of ‘Gray Rhinos’ Threatens Economy  Keith Bradsher and Sui-yee Lee, The New York Times, July 23, 2017

Beware the ‘grey rhinos’ of economic risk or ‘prepare for pain’, analyst warns China Sidney Leng, South China Morning Post, July 23, 2017

Watch out for ‘grey rhino’ in jungle of financial risksChina Daily, Jul 24, 2017

The $180 million conflict that kept Scaramucci out of the White House in January has only gotten shadier Linette Lopez, Business Insider, July 24, 2017

Wanda Swears Off Overseas Deals after Xi Exchange, Greg Isaacson, Mingtiandi, July 25, 2017

China’s Communist Leaders Focus on ‘Grey Rhino’ Private-Sector Risks Alex Frew McMillan, MarketWatch, July 26, 2017

Hunting rhinos: What Dalian Wanda saga says about China  Karishma Vaswani, BBC News, July 26, 2017

Interview: Environment, resource constraints biggest “gray rhinos” in China: author
Xinhua, July 27, 2017

CINA. I tre rinoceronti grigi di Pechino. Graziella Giangiulio, Stampa (Italy), July 27, 2017

China to crack down on ‘gray rhino’ risks Li Xuanmin, The Global Times, July 30, 2017

Los cuatro ‘rinocerontes grises’ que amenazan con embestir al mercado Victor Blanco Moro, El Economista (Spain)  July 30, 2017.

Chinese Government Concerned about ‘Gray Rhino’ [VIDEO] World Insight with Tian Wei, CGTN, August 3, 2017

China Steps Up Warnings Over Debt-Fueled Overseas Acquisitions By Sui-Lee We. The New York Times. August 18, 2017

 

The Gray Rhino Rattles Chinese Stocks

In front-page commentary published July 17th, 2017, People’s Daily, the official newspaper of China’s Communist Party, warned of the need to avert highly obvious “gray rhino” risks as well as rare and unpredictable “black swans.” The commentary rocked China’s stock markets and signaled a new policy direction intended to more aggressively address obvious financial risks.

The article said that China should “strictly prevent risks from liquidity, credit, shadow banking and abnormal capital market fluctuations, as well as insurance market and property bubbles.”

Taking the commentary as a sign that regulators would crack down on speculation, investors immediately dumped small-cap stocks, seen as more likely to carry debt that could become unmanageable. “China’s small-cap Shenzhen index plunged 4.3% on Monday. The ChiNext, which focuses on high-tech companies, plummeted 5.1% and closed at its lowest point since early 2015,” noted CNN Money.

The timing of the People’s Daily article was particularly telling, immediately following last week’s National Financial Work Conference, a key policy strategy session that occurs every five years. This year the conference created a “super-regulator,” intended to improve the country’s ability to tackle a financial crisis, that merged four existing supervisory watchdog. It also strengthened the central bank’s powers.

A few hours after the People’s Daily article appeared, new data showed the Chinese economy re-accelerating.

The Chinese government’s embrace of the gray rhino language generated widespread media coverage.

“The unusual zoological turn of phrase in the Party’s language could… hint at a genuine effort to re-energize its long-drawn-out regulatory clampdown,” Sunny Oh wrote for Marketwatch.

Similarly, ZeroHedge noted, “[I]n a surprising case of forward-looking prudence, the Chinese government is doing what numerous Fed members have also done in recent weeks, by setting a surprisingly wary tone about risk, demonstrated best by the front page commentary in the People’s Daily.”

Former Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher referred to gray rhino risks on Squawk on the Street Monday.

Here’s some other notable coverage:

What’s a ‘gray rhino’ and Why Did It Cause Chinese Stocks to Drop? CNN Money, July 17, 2017
       ¿Por qué un ‘rinoceronte gris’ causó la caída de las acciones en China?
        ‘Tê giác xám’ ?ang ?e d?a th? tr??ng Trung Qu?c VNExpress (Vietnam)
        Piyasan?n yeni korkusu: Gri gergedan BusinessHT (Turkey)

China’s Economy Charges On as Officials Target the Risk ‘Rhino’ Bloomberg News, July 17, 2017
       China economy charges on as leaders target the risk `Rhino’ The Peninsula (Qatar), July 18, 2017

Why China Fears “Gray Rhino” Risk to Fragile Financial System Marketwatch, July 17, 2017

When a ‘Black Swan’ Will No Longer Do ZeroHedge, July 17, 2017

Xi’s Risk-off Push Ripples Through China as Transition Nears Bloomberg News, July 18, 2017

China Sentences to Ponder, Gray Rhino Edition Marginal Revolution, July 18, 2017

Beijing Watches Out for “Grey Rhino” and “Black Swan” in Jungle of Financial Risks South China Morning Post, July 19, 2017

People’s Daily Reference to the Gray Rhino -What Is It? jrj.com (Chinese Simplified Characters), July 19, 2017

China Ignores Gray Rhino Threats to its Economy at its Own Peril Andrew Sheng, South China Morning Post, July 21, 2017

Keeping Financial Risks at Bay, China Daily, July 20, 2017

Gray Rhinos, Game of Thrones, and TV’s Golden Age People & Profit, France24, July 21, 2017